I'm gonna make my 2008 primary race predictions now, because before you know it, it's all gonna be over and what fun will it be saying to everyone "I knew that was gonna happen. I just didn't want to say it!"
On the Democrats side we have Hillary and Obama (and I guess Edwards, but everyone outside his campaign knows he's done). I have to go on Hillary's side here. As you know I'm a big Hills fan and I even did a bit of grass-rootin' for her before she announced her run. I think she's a centrist and I like that. I think she's a realist and I like that. And I think she's a woman (she is, right?), and I like women. She's as close as I can get to the candidate I want. If she had slightly less connections that would be better, but I'm not gonna go go for Mr. Wonderful just cause of that. Obama is young, shaky on specific actionable paths towards accomplishing his platform goals, which he does not place in bright daylight either. His speeches are filled with hope and change rhetoric but I want to put my trust in someone who knows how to implement hope from day one. Yay, I sound like Hillary. Not only I am FOR Hillary, but I think she'll carry the big states, which is what's important. Obama has young people and some independents. But we know who votes - old people and the base of the party. Besides, his middle name is Hussein. How can Dems expect to win with someone like that???
On the Republicans we have a wider field with Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul. I guess I would say Paul is not really a plausible candidate - maybe as an Independent. McCain I feel is too old and has too many enemies in the Republican party machine to make it to the end. Giuliani may or may not have an upset in Florida, but even if he does I feel he would lose to Romney in the end, who is more appealing in the same way Kennedy was more appealing than Nixon back in 1960. So for me it's gotta be Romney with Huckabee as a wild card that can upset things as he's been doing in the early states. I believe if Huckabee wasn't there to win over crazies from Romney in Iowa and South Carolina, McCain would have been a foregone conclusion by now as he was back in 2000.
So, we have Clinton-Romney to look forward to in a few months. I believe this could trigger a move by Mike Bloomberg to run as an Independent. I would be happy to see this 3-way race and I would almost be OK with any of those winning. Romney is a crazy now, but he's going to be a better President than Bush. He's going to align himself on the less crazy side of conservatives when it comes to the actual presidency. To win, though, he has to act like a crazy himself and I am willing to forgive that later on if he does a good job. Anyways, he's gonna win in that 3-way race, because Bloomberg is gonna steal Hillary's votes (he'll steal mine, that's for sure) and split the Democrats more than the crazies. So, if I have to make an early (and emotionally void) prediction for the whole shebang it would have to be Romney...
By the way, for those of you who don't speak Yonglish, a "crazy" is a right-wing, religious, conservative bigot - the kind that oppose gay marriage.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Punditerizing
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2 comments:
Hi,
as for your culinary weekend... wow... with so much how do u even remember what you had?
as for your winners prediction, i don't think either of your picks will win... and do u believe Americans will vote for a Jewish P... this will be interesting.... a black, a woman and a Jew... :)
Well, not all three (Black, Woman, Jew) can compete in the same race. We are sure to have EITHER Obama or Clinton as the Democratic nominee so in my prediction the three-way race will be Romney, Bloomberg, and Clinton - and as you say, a Jew and a woman are unlikely winners, which leaves us with Romney (a rich, white Mormon).
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